What is Polymarket?
Polymarket is a prediction market. Traders buy “Yes” or “No” shares on an event. A Yes share pays US$1 if the event happens. If Yes trades at US$0.86, the crowd is pricing roughly an 86% chance.
What are the Jensen Huang odds now?
Prices on Polymarket around 11am, 12 November 2026 (Malaysia time):
- Resignation or removal announced by 13 November 2026: about 72%
- By 31 December 2026: about 86%
- By 31 March 2027: about 92%
- Huang divorce by 31 December 2026: about 18%
These numbers change by the minute. Check the live market before quoting them.
How fast did the odds move?
- 9 November: after Huang admitted the first affair, CNBC and Fortune reported odds of about 16% for an exit by year end and about 22-25% by March 2027. Traders believed he would survive.
- 11-12 November: after the New York Times reported a second affair with an Nvidia executive and the WSJ reported the board was preparing to oust him, the year-end odds jumped above 80%.
Should you trust prediction markets?
- Good: they react to news faster than analysts and show what money is betting.
- Limits: some markets are thin, a few large traders can move prices, and traders can be wrong. The odds were only 16% three days before they hit 86%.
- Resolution rules matter: this market settles on an official announcement of resignation or removal, not on rumours.
Frequently Asked Questions
Does 86% mean Jensen Huang will leave?
No. It means traders on one platform price a high chance. Only Nvidia’s board and Huang decide, and as of this writing nothing has been announced.
Can Malaysians bet on Polymarket?
We do not recommend it. Prediction markets may be restricted or treated as gambling in many countries, including Malaysia. This article only uses the prices as information.
- Second affair report and the board meeting
- Nvidia without Huang: effect on NVDA and Malaysia
- Jensen Huang admits affair: board opens probe
- Jensen Huang’s letter and Nvidia’s board statement
- What key person risk means for Nvidia shareholders
- Megaspeed and Alice Huang explained
- What it means for Malaysia’s data centres
Want to follow Nvidia (NVDA) and other US stocks from Malaysia? See US market hours in Malaysia time and US stock fees on M+ Global.
Sources
This is a developing story, written from the reports above as of 12 November 2026 (Malaysia time). The affair and espionage claims are allegations reported by the media; Nvidia and the people named have not confirmed the second relationship, no one has been charged, and China has called the spy reports baseless.
Disclaimer: This article is for education and information only. It is not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security. Dexter Chia is a licensed dealer’s representative (R336) at Malacca Securities (M+ Global).
