Weight-Loss Drug Boom Eyes a US$22bil Market by 2035

Quick Answer: J.P. Morgan analysts led by Yang Huang say the GLP-1 weight-loss drug market in China, India and Brazil could grow 15% a year through 2035 and reach US$22bil. The note highlights Innovent, Divi’s Laboratories, Torrent Pharmaceuticals and RD Saude as stocks to play the theme, but none is Bursa Malaysia-listed.

The GLP-1 weight-loss drug boom in China, India and Brazil could create a US$22bil market by 2035. The addressable market could grow at an annual rate of 15% through that period, according to a J.P. Morgan note released on Friday. The growth case rests on the three countries’ large diabetes and obesity burdens.

How Big Could the GLP-1 Weight-Loss Drug Market Get by 2035?

China is projected to reach US$13.7 billion by 2035, versus US$8 billion for Brazil. J.P. Morgan expects China to overtake Brazil by 2027, supported by its large diabetes burden and wider reimbursement for GLP-1 therapies.

Brazil is currently the largest of the three markets. India is the smallest, held back by conservative attitudes and affordability concerns.

Weight-Loss Drug Boom Eyes a US$22bil Market by 2035 — Photo: Free Malaysia Today

Why Are Diabetes and Obesity Driving GLP-1 Demand?

China: more than 25% of global diagnosed diabetes cases.
India: more than 15% of global diagnosed diabetes cases.
Brazil: about 12% of adults have diabetes.
China: overweight and obese population could exceed 65% by 2030.
India: adult obesity rate projected to reach 11% by 2035.

Why Is GLP-1 Use Still Low in China and India?

GLP-1 penetration is below 0.1% in China and under 0.2% in India. The US sits at 4%-5%, according to the note.

Brazil’s obesity-drug penetration is projected to reach only 7%-8% of its obese population by 2035, compared with about 30% in the US. Affordability concerns have kept uptake low across emerging markets.

In India, hesitancy around injectables and slow-shifting cultural attitudes persist. J.P. Morgan says these remain key barriers to adoption.

Which Stocks Did J.P. Morgan Name for the GLP-1 Theme?

Innovent (China)
Divi’s Laboratories (India)
Torrent Pharmaceuticals (India)
RD Saude (Brazil)

The brokerage calls the three markets ‘converging on the same destination’. Analysts note that patent cliffs, generic launches and policy-driven price cuts are improving GLP-1 affordability.

Is Any Bursa Malaysia Stock Part of This GLP-1 Story?

The J.P. Morgan note names no Bursa Malaysia-listed company. Malaysian investors who want exposure to the theme would need to check each company’s listing, business mix and revenue sources directly. An AI Stock Analysis for Malaysians tool can help screen overseas healthcare names, but the figures must still come from company filings.

Key Takeaways

J.P. Morgan sees the GLP-1 market in China, India and Brazil reaching US$22bil by 2035, growing 15% a year.
China is projected at US$13.7 billion by 2035 and is expected to overtake Brazil by 2027.
GLP-1 penetration is below 0.1% in China and under 0.2% in India, versus 4%-5% in the US.
Innovent, Divi’s Laboratories, Torrent Pharmaceuticals and RD Saude are the stocks named in the note.
No Bursa Malaysia-listed company appears in the J.P. Morgan note.

This article is for information only and is not investment advice. Always do your own research and read the latest J.P. Morgan note and company filings before making any decision.

Frequently Asked Questions

How big will the GLP-1 weight-loss drug market be by 2035?

J.P. Morgan says the addressable market in China, India and Brazil could reach US$22bil by 2035, growing 15% a year. China is projected at US$13.7 billion and Brazil at US$8 billion.

Which GLP-1 stocks did J.P. Morgan highlight?

J.P. Morgan highlighted Innovent in China, Divi’s Laboratories and Torrent Pharmaceuticals in India, and RD Saude in Brazil.

Are any GLP-1 stocks listed on Bursa Malaysia?

The J.P. Morgan note names no Bursa Malaysia-listed company. Check each company’s listing directly before researching further.

Why is GLP-1 use so low in China and India?

GLP-1 penetration is below 0.1% in China and under 0.2% in India, versus 4%-5% in the US. Affordability concerns, conservative attitudes and hesitancy around injectables are the main barriers.

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